Volume 11 Issue 2 ( June )

Predicting the cyclonic systems' formation and intensification process has long been a crucial but challenging task due to their short lifespan and rapid intensity variations. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop the Revised Genesis Potential Parameter Index (RGPPI) and assess its effectiveness in determining the suitability of the existing environment for cyclone formation. In the present study, numerical simulation has been performed using the advanced Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW). The WRF-ARW model has run on a single domain with a 10-kilometer horizontal resolution to simulate the formation and intensification processes of four cyclonic systems of varying intensities over the Bay of Bengal. The results suggest that RGPPI can be useful for predicting cyclonic system development. Using RGPPI, we can forecast changes in cyclonic systems and the corresponding environmental conditions with a lead time of 24 to 48 hours in advance. It is found that non-developing systems typically exhibit a mean RGPPI value equal to or below 30.0, while developing systems may surpass this threshold. Furthermore, it is also observed that systems with higher severity levels could have average RGPPI values ranging from 3 to 8 times greater than the 30.0 threshold value. This study is expected to enhance researchers' current comprehension of tropical cyclone genesis and intensity prediction.

Keywords: Tropical cyclone, genesis, Bay of Bengal, sea surface temperature, RGPPI