Volume 11 Issue 4 ( December 2024)

An analysis of fuel demand has been conducted on the optimization results of Indonesia's generating system development planned, covering the study period from 2022 to 2060. This study aims to calculate fuel demands from existing and committed power plants, as well as the optimized electricity system plan. This includes a wide range of fuel types, such as coal, natural gas, fuel oil, gasoil, industrial diesel oil (IDO), liquefied natural gas (LNG), nuclear, biomass, biogas, wind, solar, hydropower, geothermal, ocean energy, and municipal waste. Analysis has been done using the supply-demand optimization model of the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) tool. LEAP provides the option to utilize either bottom-up or top-down methodologies, or a combination of both, for demand modeling, allowing for increased flexibility. On the supply side, LEAP offers a comprehensive suite of functionalities encompassing accounting, simulation methodologies, and optimization modeling, including the simulation of fuel demand calculations. This research employs two scenarios: Business-as-usual (BAU) without new renewable energy and energy conservation policies, and Net Zero Emission (NZE) with these policies and no fossil fuel use in committed plants. The total fuel demand calculated for the 2022-2060 period in the BAU scenario is 75,089.46 Million Barrel of Oil Equivalent (MBOE), consisting of 56,550.53 MBOE (75.31%) from fossil fuels and 18,538.93 MBOE (24.69%) from new renewables. In contrast, the NZE scenario demands 78,049.30 MBOE, with 33,372.12 MBOE (42.76%) from fossil fuels and 44,677.18 MBOE (57.24%) from new renewables. Therefore,

Keywords: fuel demand analysis; sustainable electricity power system; Net Zero Emission; New Renewable Energy; Indonesia