EVERGREEN

Joint Journal of Novel Carbon Resource Sciences and Green Asia Strategy

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ISSN:2432-5953 (Online)

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A System Dynamics Approach to Evaluating Biomass-Coal Co-Firing in Indonesia: An Integrated Technical, Economic, Environmental and Social Framework

Rahmi Kartika Jati1,*, Sik Sumaedi2, Sih Damayanti2, Mahmudi3, Igif Gimin Prihanto3, Marlina Pandin1, Hendy Gunawan3, Medi Yarmen1, Mauludin Hidayat4, Agung Widyo Utomo1, Nurfadlih Syahlani1, Nidya J. Astrini2, Anggini Dinaseviani5, Aris Yaman6
1Research Center for Sustainable Industrial and Manufacturing Systems, Research Organization for Energy and Manufacture, National Research and Innovation Agency, South Tangerang, Indonesia
2Research Center for Behavioral and Circular Economics, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jakarta, Indonesia
3Research Center for Public Policy, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jakarta, Indonesia
4Research Center for Manufacturing Technology, National Research and Innovation Agency, South Tangerang, Indonesia
5Research Center for Economics of Industry, Services, and Trade, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jakarta, Indonesia
6Research Center for Artificial Intelligence and Cyber Security National Research and Innovation Agency Bandung, Indonesia
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed:
E-mail: rahm030@brin.go.id (RKJ)
Evergreen, Vol. 13, Iss. 01, pp. 18–44, 2026
DOI: 10.5109/7405126
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Received: May 26, 2025 | Revised: September 24, 2025 | Accepted: December 16, 2025 | Published: March 2026
Abstract
This study employs a qualitative System Dynamics (SD) methodological approach, utilizing stakeholder workshops and interviews, to investigate the evaluation structure of biomass and coal co-firing integration in Indonesia's coal-fired power plants. The primary deliverable of this research is a validated conceptual model that serves as the foundation for a dynamic simulation framework and a subsequent policy roadmap. A key novel finding is the identification and stakeholder validation of specific feedback mechanisms unique to Indonesia's archipelagic context, including four reinforcing loops (R1-R4)—such as policy-driven cost efficiency tied to local subsidy schemes—and one critical balancing loop (B1) representing technical and supply chain bottlenecks, like feedstock variability. This Indonesia-centric SD framework structures the dynamic interactions between policy, economics, and logistics, accounting for constraints such as fragmented supply chains and regional disparities. It enables the testing of six tailored policy interventions, including incentives for biomass utilization, subsidy schemes for co-firing infrastructure, and carbon pricing. The resulting conceptual model and policy roadmap provide stakeholders with a practical tool for optimizing co-firing strategies to support Indonesia’s journey toward its net-zero emissions goal.
Keywords
Biomass; Co-Firing; Emissions Reduction; Indonesia; System Dynamics
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