EVERGREEN

Joint Journal of Novel Carbon Resource Sciences and Green Asia Strategy

ISSN:2189-0420 (Print until Mar 2020)
ISSN:2432-5953 (Online)

SCImago Journal & Country Rank

Open Access
Scopus
Google Scholar
Crossref
SCImago Journal & Country Rank
4.3
2024CiteScore
 
69th percentile
Powered by Scopus
Metrics by SCOPUS 2024
CiteScore
4.3
SJR
0.391
SNIP
1.192


Short-Term Prediction of Deflection for a Steel Truss Railway Bridge Induced by Train Load using Seasonal ARIMA: A Case Study at BH 77 Bridge, Lampung, Indonesia

Fauzi Dwi Setiawan1, Emeralda Insani Nuansa1,*, Hanafi Isnanta Prabawa1, Thiya Fiantika1, M. Rosyidi2, Farhan Muzzammil Ali1
1Research Centre for Transportation Technology, National Research and Innovation Agency of Indonesia, Indonesia
2Marine Bioindustry Laboratory, National Research and Innovation Agency of Indonesia, Indonesia
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed:
E-mail: emer001@brin.go.id (EIN)
Received: May 28, 2025 | Revised: September 02, 2025 | Accepted: December 16, 2025 | Published: December 2025
Abstract
The BH 77 Railway Bridge is one of the railway bridges that withstands the heaviest train load in Indonesia. The Babaranjang train, which crosses this track in South Sumatra, consists of 60 wagons and 2 locomotives, all loaded with coal. This heavy load is considered extreme, especially since the bridge was designed in the 1970s under an older structural design code. Therefore, a structural health monitoring system (SHMS) is essential to prevent a bridge's sudden failure. One of the key advances in Structural Health Monitoring System is predicting structural responses based on historical measurement data. This study focuses on developing a deflection prediction model using seasonal ARIMA. The bridge deflection is a critical parameter in structural health monitoring; thus, two pressure transducer sensors were installed at the end of the bridge near the abutment and reservoirs as a water level references were placed on the midspan of the bridge to measure the actual deflection induced by the train load. Eight days deflection data was analyzed, focusing on the trains loaded with coal (the heaviest train), and assuming a consistent average speed for all trains. The seasonal ARIMA was then performed to analyze the optimal frequency model. Utilizing Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) evaluation techniques, this model is appropriate for short-term deflection prediction models, with results showing an MAE range from of 13% to 16% and RMSE 16%-21%. The outcomes of this model's development are particularly promising and provide a general overview of the trainload-induced bridge deflection prediction.
Keywords
ARIMA; Deflection Prediction; Railway Bridge; Structural Health Monitoring
Available Repositories
Share Article
Article Metrics
--
Views
--
Downloads
--
Citations
Full Text
Download PDF
References
  1. 1) J.M. Ko, and Y.Q. Ni, "Technology developments in structural health monitoring of large-scale bridges," Eng. Struct., 27 (12 SPEC. ISS.) 1715-1725 (2005) doi:10.1016/j.engstruct.2005.02.021
  2. 2) J. Ou, and H. Li, "Structural health monitoring in mainland china: review and future trends," Struct. Health Monit., 9 (3) 219-231 (2010) doi:10.1177/1475921710365269
  3. 3) "Persyaratan teknis jalur kereta api," (2011)
  4. 4) C.-C. Comisu, N. Taranu, G. Boaca, and M.-C. Scutaru, "Structural health monitoring system of bridges," Procedia Eng., 199 2054-2059 (2017) doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2017.09.472
  5. 5) P. Zeng, and R. Wang, "Long-term bridge deflection monitoring using a connected pipe system considering structural vibration," IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci., 189 (2) 0-6 (2018) doi:10.1088/1755-1315/189/2/022007
  6. 6) X. Ye, and B. Chen, "Condition assessment of bridge structures based on a liquid level sensing system: theory, verification and application," Arab. J. Sci. Eng., 44 (5) 4405-4424 (2019) doi:10.1007/s13369-018-3425-6
  7. 7) B. Torres, P. Poveda, S. Ivorra, and L. Estevan, "Long-term static and dynamic monitoring to failure scenarios assessment in steel truss railway bridges: a case study," Eng. Fail. Anal., 152 107435 (2023) doi:10.1016/j.engfailanal.2023.107435
  8. 8) International Union of Railways (UIC), "UIC code 518: testing and approval of railway vehicle from the point of view of their dynamic behavior-safety-track fatigue-running behavior," (2009)
  9. 9) The Steel Construction Institute, "Design guide for steel railway bridges," 1-136 (2004)
  10. 10) Korea Rail Network Authority, "Guideline of track maintenance," (2016)
  11. 11) K.Y. Wong, "Instrumentation and health monitoring of cable-supported bridges," Struct. Control Health Monit., 11 (2) 91-124 (2004) doi:10.1002/stc.33
  12. 12) X. Hou, X. Yang, and Q. Huang, "Using inclinometers to measure bridge deflection," J. Bridge Eng., 10 (5) 564-569 (2005) doi:10.1061/(asce)1084-0702(2005)10:5(564
  13. 13) X. He, X. Yang, and L. Zhao, "New method for high-speed railway bridge dynamic deflection measurement," J. Bridge Eng., 19 (7) 1-11 (2014) doi:10.1061/(asce)be.1943-5592.0000612
  14. 14) T.-H. Yi, H.-N. Li, and M. Gu, "Recent research and applications of gps-based monitoring technology for high-rise structures," Struct. Control Health Monit., (2012) (2012) doi:10.1002/stc.1501
  15. 15) A. Nickitopoulou, K. Protopsalti, and S. Stiros, "Monitoring dynamic and quasi-static deformations of large flexible engineering structures with gps: accuracy, limitations and promises," Eng. Struct., 28 (10) 1471-1482 (2006) doi:10.1016/j.engstruct.2006.02.001
  16. 16) L. Ngeljaratan, Mohamed A. Moustafa, A. Sumarno, Agus Mudo Prasetyo, Dany Perwita Sari, and Maidina, "Exploratory study of drone data stabilization with implications in vibration-based structural health monitoring," Evergreen, 10 (3) 1776-1783 (2023) doi:10.5109/7151727
  17. 17) O. Ogundipe, G.W. Roberts, and C.J. Brown, "GPS monitoring of a steel box girder viaduct," Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 10 (1) 25-40 (2014) doi:10.1080/15732479.2012.692387
  18. 18) Y. Liu, Y. Deng, and C.S. Cai, "Deflection monitoring and assessment for a suspension bridge using a connected pipe system: a case study in china," Struct. Control Health Monit., 22 (12) 1408-1425 (2015) doi:10.1002/stc.1751
  19. 19) J. Zhou, Z. Sun, B. Wei, L. Zhang, and P. Zeng, "Deflection-based multilevel structural condition assessment of long-span prestressed concrete girder bridges using a connected pipe system," Measurement, 169 108352 (2021) doi:10.1016/j.measurement.2020.108352
  20. 20) Z.-K. Lee, M. Bonopera, C.-C. Hsu, B.-H. Lee, and F.-Y. Yeh, "Long-term deflection monitoring of a box girder bridge with an optical-fiber, liquid-level system," Structures, 44 904-919 (2022) doi:10.1016/j.istruc.2022.08.048
  21. 21) H. Ha, L.V. Manh, D.D. Nguyen, M. Amiri, I. Prakash, and B.T. Pham, "Hybrid machine learning model for prediction of vertical deflection of composite bridges," Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. - Bridge Eng., 178 (2) 99-108 (2025) doi:10.1680/jbren.23.00007
  22. 22) J. Xin, J. Zhou, S.X. Yang, X. Li, and Y. Wang, "Bridge structure deformation prediction based on gnss data using kalman-arima-garch model," Sens. Switz., 18 (1) (2018) doi:10.3390/s18010298
  23. 23) S. Bian, J. Zhuo, and L. Zhu, "Strain prediction of bridge shm based on ceemdan-arima model," IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci., 558 (3) (2020) doi:10.1088/1755-1315/558/3/032036
  24. 24) D. Singh, and A. Singh, "Role of building automation technology in creating a smart and sustainable built environment," Evergreen, 10 (1) 412-420 (2023) doi:10.5109/6781101
  25. 25) A. Sharma, S. Sharma, and D. Gupta, "Ant colony optimization based routing strategies for internet of things," Evergreen, 10 (2) 998-1009 (2023) doi:10.5109/6793654
  26. 26) T. Fiantika, W.A.N. Aspar, D.A. Purnomo, W. Barasa, S.M. Harjono, and S.P. Primadiyanti, "A review of structural health monitoring systems and application for railway bridges," AIP Conf. Proc., 2646 (2023) doi:10.1063/5.0115843
  27. 27) A. Yussupov and Raya Z. Suleimenova, "Use of remote sensing data for environmental monitoring of desertification," Evergreen, 10 (1) 300-307 (2023) doi:10.5109/6781080
  28. 28) K. Erazo, D. Sen, S. Nagarajaiah, and L. Sun, "Vibration-based structural health monitoring under changing environmental conditions using kalman filtering," Mech. Syst. Signal Process., 117 1-15 (2019) doi:10.1016/j.ymssp.2018.07.041
  29. 29) "Reliability of aged offshore structures," in: Cond. Assess. Aged Struct., Elsevier, 2008: pp. 287-351 doi:10.1533/9781845695217.4.287
  30. 30) "EN 1990:2002 eurocode for basis structural design," (2002)
  31. 31) S. Kumari, and P. Muthulakshmi, "SARIMA model: an efficient machine learning technique for weather forecasting," Procedia Comput. Sci., 235 656-670 (2024) doi:10.1016/j.procs.2024.04.064
  32. 32) D.H.M. Aquino, "Evaluating the impacts of earthquake disasters on the building construction sector: a sarima-based counterfactual analysis," (2025)
  33. 33) D. Zhao, H. Zhang, Q. Cao, Z. Wang, and R. Zhang, "The research of sarima model for prediction of hepatitis b in mainland china," Med. U. S., 101 (23) E29317–E29317 (2022) doi:10.1097/MD.0000000000029317
  34. 34) S. Ma, Q. Liu, and Y. Zhang, "A prediction method of fire frequency: based on the optimization of sarima model," PLoS ONE, 16 (8 August) 1-13 (2021) doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0255857
  35. 35) H. Halidah, N. Hesty, P. Aji, Ifanda, D. Amelia, and K. Akhmad, "Short-term wind forecasting with weather data using deep learning - case study in baron techno park," Evergreen, 10 (3) 1753-1761 (2023) doi:10.5109/7151724
  36. 36) M. Naloufi, F.S. Lucas, S. Souihi, P. Servais, A. Janne, and T. Wanderley Matos De Abreu, "Evaluating the performance of machine learning approaches to predict the microbial quality of surface waters and to optimize the sampling effort," Water, 13 (18) 2457 (2021) doi:10.3390/w13182457
  37. 37) J. Xin, Y. Jiang, J. Zhou, L. Peng, S. Liu, and Q. Tang, "Bridge deformation prediction based on shm data using improved vmd and conditional kde," Eng. Struct., 261 (June 2021) 114285-114285 (2022) doi:10.1016/j.engstruct.2022.114285
Other Papers in This Issue